Sunday, January 06, 2013

Next System To Clip Southeast Arizona

The weather system currently bringing some rains and mountain snow to southern California, is forecast to dig southeastward into northern Mexico. The models have consistently been forecasting this to be a fairly dry system once it moves into Mexico, until it progresses into Texas and picks up GoM moisture. The national meeting of the American Meteorological Society will be occurring in Austin and it looks to be a very soggy and perhaps stormy meeting.

The early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS is also similar with its forecast of very light precipitation accumulations over southeastern Arizona. Forecast above is for total precipitation through 6 am MST on Tuesday morning (January 8th). The new run of the NWS NAM forecasts slightly higher amounts for the southeast corner of the state - up to about a half an inch. The WRF-GFS starts the event out with strong and gusty east-southeast winds as pressures fall out to the west. Surface forecast below is valid at 10 am MST this morning.
The next system (around the weekend of the 12/13th) is forecast by the ECMWF to pick up considerably more Pacific moisture.

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