It was very suppressed across almost all of Arizona yesterday with lightning strikes detected occurring only along the Utah/Arizona border.
This morning PW continues to increase across southern Arizona - above is 13 UTC CIRA blended PW with color bar. Morning PW at TUS is 32 mm. Note that values of 50 mm and higher cover almost all of the GoC.
Middle-level temperatures have now increased some and are around -5 C or so at 500 mb from Tucson east and southeastward. Thus, little CAPE indicated for today except along the Borderlands and in northern Mexico.
There is an inverted trough at 500 mb over northern Mexico. because of the huge, summer-long, data void over northwestern Mexico, it appears that this morning's NAM has this feature too weak in its analysis and forecasts. Regardless, the feature will be moving across northern Mexico and southern Arizona the next two days.
Another inverted trough may impact the southern GoC by Friday and result in at least a moderate surge of GoC mT air into southern Arizona. Southerly winds are strong this morning at Yuma.
The early WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo indicates little precipitation for southern Arizona this afternoon - below is rainfall forecast through midnight. I suspect that this is under-done along the Borderlands and northern Mexico.
Undoubtedly, the weather will gradually become more interesting as the week progresses. Meanwhile, 100+ temperatures have made a return.
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