Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Dry Out Today - 7 August

Yesterday turned out fairly suppressed from the Tucson metro area northwestward (above graphic shows lightning strikes for 24-hours ending at 6 am this morning). The fly-in-the-ointment was a strong outflow that came in from the northwest between 9 and 10 am in the morning. This kept thunderstorm activity to the south and east of the metro area. We had a couple of sprinkles and a trace here at the house. Across the ALERT network 38 sites (41% coverage) reported rainfall that was mostly light. However, Florida Canyon under that swath of CGs across the corner of Pima County, reported 1.10" and Bellota Ranch on Redington Pass had 0.91".

This morning the Tucson and Phoenix soundings remain unstable. There is a patch of higher PW persisting over south-central Arizona with values near 1 1/2 inches - the light-bright green area on the CIRA blended PW product above from 6 am MST. The 500 mb trough has moved off to the northwest this morning and west to northwest winds are advecting much drier Pacific air into southern Arizona and northern Mexico. The early WRF-GFS forecast below of PW valid at midnight tonight tonight illustrates the dramatic dry out that underway today. Things stay dry for a couple of days.

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