Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Very Persistent Ridge Over West Coast North America

First - coolest morning of the Fall so far today. Low hit 38F here at house versus 50F at the airport. Was actually cold when I walked at sunrise down in the Rillito Wash. Looks like low temps relative to the airport will be one of the few local weather topics for next week or so - see below.

Shown above is the 60-h GFS ensemble mean forecast  for 500 mb. The strong ridge over the western portion of North America extends eastward, at high latitudes,  into the north Atlantic. The ridge still persists in the 240-h mean forecast below, although heights have fallen over the north Atlantic. Weather will continue cool and unsettled over the eastern 2/3rds of the US, while the West is blocked-out wrt weather systems in the westerlies. Will October pass without rain here in the Southwest?

1 comment:

  1. Hi Bob: It would interesting to see whether you agree with the NWS's 2, 3 months and out forecast. To a non-professional, the start of this fall portends a colder winter, not a 60% chance of above normal temps. These fronts that are coming direct from the Gulf of Alaska appear to be happening more often. Or am I misinterpreting what is going on????