Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Quick Look AM 9 October 2013

The current short wave digging south toward southern California has not been able to advect subtropical moisture into it as of this morning. Above is CIMSS PW product at 9 UTC this morning and below is 12 UTC water vapor image - both indicate limited moisture for southern Arizona at this time.

The early run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo continues to forecast very strong south-southwesterly winds this afternoon (Wednesday, October 9th) for much of Arizona - above forecast of 10-m wind speeds is valid at 4 pm this afternoon. The model also forecasts a band of increased PW along the cold front tomorrow morning - the PW forecast below is valid at 9 am Thursday morning - note however that values stay quite low over southeast Arizona.

Finally, the model manages to forecast some rain at the ground out in central/western Pima County and the over the Catalinas. The forecast below is for total precipitation through 6 pm tomorrow evening - so much of southeast Arizona has winds and dust today and clouds and sprinkles as the front moves through tomorrow morning.

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