Continues Very Suppressed In Low Deserts

Forecasts have been consistently too high (wrt models and NWS POPs for last four afternoons and nights) for storms and rain at low desert elevations. For example, POPs here at the NWS grid for house have been basically 30 to 50% for last eight forecast periods while gauge has recorded nada. Yesterday was similar, with storms remaining north, south, and east of the deserts. Above graphic shows CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 5 am MST this morning, Sunday, July 13th. While plot below is rainfall for 24-hours ending at 7 am MST, from MesoWest at the University of Utah. (Note that one gauge in north Phoenix area seems to have gone bonkers with a reported amount over 8 inches!)

The ALERT network (for 24-hours also ending at 7 am) shows only 7 sites with rainfall along east and far southern parts of the array. We have been at Santa Rita Abbey and were treated to a spectacular lightning show Saturday evening, with almost continuous lightning near and east of the Huachuca Mountains. Art Douglas reports rains of significance for the last two day, and the action has been centered in his part of the state. There were storms over the Santa Ritas as we drove home yesterday afternoon - see below.

Photo above is of sunrise over the Whetstone Mountains yesterday, Saturday, July 12th. Storm photo below was taken about 4:30 pm yesterday afternoon. View is looking south-southwest from the scenic pullout on Highway 83, just east of the proposed Rosemont pit mine site. The high Santa Ritas are hidden by the heavy rain.