Have to go somewhere but I wanted to note a couple things about the strange situation that has evolved for this morning. The 500 mb 12z analysis for 6 July (above, from NCAR RAL) shows that there is a weak, closed cyclone over Arizona. A weak short wave from the northeast and the old inverted trough from Douglas have merged overhead. Note the southwest wind at TUS this morning.
The morning sounding (below, also from RAL) indicates that again a deep, surface layer has been cooled by the outflows from yesterday's storms (remember that this happened and shut things down on the 4th). The layer with westerly winds is very deep this morning and the steering flow will not be from a good direction - but it may be quite weak by afternoon, allowing storms to move any direction and propagate toward unstable air. The CAPE is actually larger today than yesterday and storms should form over elevated terrain very easily, since clearing skies are moving in from west.
All-in-all a strange and very difficult forecast situation. More later today.
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