A Mild October Coming To End

October has been very mild over much of the country this year. Here in the Southwest there has not been much to write about since the thunder, winds, and dust, with some light rain, back on October 19th. However, it appears that the first days of November will bring substantial changes to the western and eastern thirds of the country. A cold and intense coastal storm is being forecast by some of the models for the East and Northeast out around 96 to 120 hours.

Out here in the West a substantial 500 mb wave will dig southward and eastward from the Gulf of Alaska - centered this morning at about 50 N and 150 W in the above 14 UTC water vapor image. A weak upper-level short wave at about 25 N and 130 W has a substantial plume of upper-level moisture to its south and east that extends down to about 5 N. As this feature moves northeastward ahead of the major feature approaching the Northwest, it may bring some high cloudiness to southern Arizona to close out October. Temperatures over the weekend will be much cooler than the expected low 90s of the next couple of days. The northern part of the major wave will shear away to the northeast and leave behind a weak trough or closed low at 500 mb over northwestern Mexico. Both the closed low and a developing tropical disturbance, see this morning's NHC Outlook below, could come into play for parts of the Southwest and even Southern Plains early next week. The tropical system will be a wild card in the forecasts for next week, as currently model predictions of this feature are all over the place.