Chaotic skies this morning with a variety of cloud forms. Upper-level instability led to some buildups above 500 mb, and these were accompanied by virga and mammatus. View of Catalinas above is from campus at 7:00 am MST.
Strong cold front over the central U.S. this morning, with the far southwestern portion of high pressure pushing a backdoor front into southeast Arizona this morning. The main impact of this fast-hitting weather feature will be some gusty east to southeast winds later this morning. Then the trough moving in from the Pacific will dominate our weather for the next few days. The early WRF-NAM forecast from Atmo this morning, shown below, is for 10-m winds valid at 9:00 am this morning. The model forecasts showers and light precipitation with the cold front on Sunday, with rainfall amounts light except at highest elevations. The model forecasts some snow accumulations with the front on Mt. Graham and in the White Mountains. It appears that Monday night could be quite cold here in the north part of Tucson along the Rillito. If skies are clear with calm winds in this area, we will probably see our first morning with temperatures at or just below freezing - so quite a change on the way.
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