Tony Haffer, MIC emeritus of the NWS Phoenix Forecast Office, wrote:
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The two near misses reinforce the fact meteorology is an INEXACT
science. I agree there is often an office “dynamic” (among other
factors) that results in forecasters not updating forecasts going awry
in favor of forecasts for improving conditions. That said, procedurally
in the NWS there are operational priorities for all weather events.
Updates for deteriorating weather and WARNINGS are the highest priority;
whilst updates for improving weather, much lower. Consideration must
be given to staff size, about a dozen meteorologists at each NWS office,
as well as their 24-hr/day responsibilities, which include, Public and
Aviation weather and Warnings; radar monitoring; telephone answering;
social and electronic media communications. The dozen or so Mets
maintain a 24/7 weather watch 365 days a year (as well as take medical
and vacation Leave). This distills to two mets per shift, except during
critical weather, when perhaps as many as four may be on shift
together. Additionally, the staff’s responsibility covers an area
something like 30,000+ sq. miles. Suffices to say the men and women who
provide us weather forecast service MUST prioritize their actions to
provide the most timely information that will result in actions to save
lives and property. If observational data indicate a threat is CLEARLY
over, then one can argue updating a forecast to say it’s not going to
rain, is little more than paper/electronic exercise.
All this
said, I strongly agree with you regarding the need for additional
research relative to Eastern Pacific hurricane forecasting. While I
feel you were overly polite calling NHC’s Odile forecasts erratic, I
feel they were poor. NHC was constantly chasing the storm, and
adjusting its track. Certainly the model guidance the NHC forecasters
receive has room for improvement, but what I believe to be a glaring
omission, is a serious lack of real time data. NHC forecasters have to
do far too much estimating regarding Eastern Pacific storm strength and
location (while NOAA/USAF hurricane hunter aircraft gather moss in the
Southeast). Why is the Southwest ALWAYS shortchanged when it comes to
dispatching equipment to probe Eastern Pacific storms? The answer, of
course, is budgetary limitations. It is time for NOAA to reassess its
de facto policy of not deploying hurricane hunter resources to the
Eastern Pacific. More importantly, it’s time for NOAA to request, and
for Congress to PROVIDE, funding so NOAA can provide a similar hurricane
forecast SERVICE to the Southwest as it has always provided to the East
and Southeast!
Tony Haffer, NWS (ret.)
Wednesday, October 01, 2014
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