It is a nice, cool Fall morning here in the Tucson area on the last day of September. View from Kitt Peak above, looking north at about 7 am MST. Visible satellite image below from 6:45 am shows that skies over southern Arizona are almost completely clear, with only a bit of cloud cover off over the Chiricahuas. This was the first morning this Fall that I have worn a long-sleeve shirt when I walked - temperature here at house was 54 F when I returned about 6:30 am - very nice start to the day.
The PW values are quite low over Arizona this morning, and I've shown both NESDIS institute analyses (CIMSS MIMIC above for 12 UTC and CIRA blended below for 13 UTC). Values are only half an inch or a bit higher over a small area of south-central Arizona (as per the CIRA analysis). Both analyses show a high center of PW associated with the remnants of Rachel west of Baja. A large pool of mT air with PW of two inches or more remains over the east Pacific and GoC south of 30 degrees N - so the possibility continues for tropical storms to push this air northward. The global models indicate another storm developing this week and moving northwestward off of Baja - so will keep an eye on the NHC products this week. If this storm does develop, it will be "Simon."
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