Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Finally - Weather Events Return End Of Week Through Early Next Week

Above shows forecast precipitation plumes from the 06 UTC run of the NWS GFS model last night. The number of ensemble members forecasting precipitation next Friday night has increased substantially, with essentially 100% of the 20 members indicating at least 0.01" at the airport (TUS). However, the spread of forecast precipitation amounts is fairly large, ranging from only 0.01" to about 0.40". About 30% of the ensemble members forecast a second event around next Tuesday. 

The operational version of the GFS is quite conservative, relative to some of the ensemble members, forecasting only about 0.05" with the first event and forecasting nothing with the trailing event.

This morning's forecast from the local NWS Office indicates for 40% POPS at the airport on Friday night, with nothing in way of POPs for TUS out at day 7.

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