Monday, December 21, 2015

Miscellany As Astronomical Winter Approaches

In the short-term the WRF-NAM forecast from 06 UTC last night is forecasting a bit of precipitation  over nearby mountains late Tuesday - this occurs within moist flow from the northwest. The forecast above is for accumulated precipitation through 5:00 am MST Wednesday morning, December 23rd. The WRF-GFS, however, forecasts any precipitation in this period to remain well to our north.

For the longer-term, i.e., the Holiday Weekend, the GFS ensembles (QPF plumes below) are now clustering with a forecast for light rainfall at TUS (the airport) of a tenth of an inch or so. If you look closely though, you'll see that the timing for this brief event remains rather uncertain within the various forecasts. There are two outliers in the ensemble mix that forecast a big event on Saturday night with amounts over an inch. 

So, a cold trough for Christmas with weather (precipitation) details TBD.

Off in the Great Lakes Region, yet another rain event is underway this morning, as per the above surface plot for a bit before 13 UTC. Observations of light to moderate rain cover most of southeastern Wisconsin, lower Michigan, and extend eastward into Canada north of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Further east, much of New England remains brown as their snow drought continues. View above is of the Quad at Middlebury College in northern Vermont this morning. The view below (also this morning) is of the Nubble Lighthouse on the Maine coast, between Boston and Portland.

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