Saturday, March 26, 2016

As March Winds Down Anything More Than Wind And Dust?

The extended period of distressingly dry weather continues across southeastern Arizona and much of the Southwest. Here at the house I've measured only 2/10s of an inch of rain since January 8th (that's almost 80 days). So the question as March comes to an end is whether we'll have some showers at mid-week, or if it will be just some more wind and dust. The panels above and below are from the 00 UTC run of the GEFS last evening and are valid at 12 UTC on April Fools' Day (i.e., at 156-hours out).

The average 500 mb heights (above) indicate a very daunting, blocking ridge over much of the West that extends northward across Alaska and into Siberia. The U.S. weather action continues to be happening mostly over the eastern 2/3rds of the country. The spaghetti plot for 500 mb at this time (below) shows surprisingly little spaghetti on the Northern Hemisphere plate, considering that this is out at 156-hours. The southern branch of the flow continues strong but is still shifted southward into and across northern Mexico.

The forecast of total precipitation through 12 UTC on April 1st is shown below from the operational member and presents little hope for a real break in our very dry period. A few of the ensemble members do indicate a slight chance of spits and sputters of rain right at the end of the month.

So, basically a time to enjoy the amazing weather and the early Easter weekend.

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