Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Sprinkles Later This Week?

The 06 UTC forecasts last night from the GEFS and Atmo's WRF-GFS continue to hold out some chances for sprinkles through April Fools' Day. The GEFS QPF plumes above show wide ranging timing and amounts from zero to a bit more than 2/10s of an inch at the airport - possibilities all over the place, so it's hardly a simple coin-flip situation.

The WRF-GFS forecasts light echoes over southeast Arizona late Thursday and Friday morning - below is composite radar echoes forecast at 3:00 am MST on Friday. At bottom is the model's forecast of total precipitation through 11:00 am on Friday. Certainly not much of an "event."

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