Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Suppressed Southern Arizona - Active In Tropics

Another day yesterday with no thunderstorm activity across the southern third of Arizona, as per detected CG flashes for past 24-hours, through 5:00 am MST this morning (above from Atmo and Vaisala). 

However, the tropics of both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins are quite active. The five day outlook (below) from NHC this morning indicates a tropical system threatening Florida by the weekend. Hurricane Gaston appears likely to remain over the open Atlantic.

The long-term forecasts from the operational versions of the GFS (above) and the ECMWF (below) are quite different at 168-hours (both surface forecasts valid at 00 UTC on August 31st). The GFS is picking up on only Hurricane Gaston, while the ECMWF is forecasting three other tropical storms/hurricanes by the end of the month. The big, and potentially important difference is over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF would bring a storm and potentially more heavy, flooding rains to Louisiana and Texas. Certainly an interesting situation to watch as the month draws to a close.

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