Thursday, October 05, 2017

Brief Look At Nate And Also New Mexico

Tropical storm Nate is currently located around 15 degrees north along the coast of central America. The morning NHC forecasts the storm to move north-northwestward and to perhaps become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. Last night's global models forecast a much weaker system approaching the central Gulf coast. So something for folks along the storm-ravaged coast to keep an eye on as the weekend approaches. 

The morning sounding at El Paso (as per plot above from SPC) is quite moist and unstable this morning, with a nice veering wind profile. The 06 UTC forecast from the WRF-GFS at Atmo forecasts strong storms in that area, and northward, around 7:00 pm MST (below) this evening. After today, extremely dry air moves in from the northwest, as per model's forecast of PW valid at midnight tomorrow night (bottom).

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