Saturday, October 21, 2017

Seven-Days Out

I have been watching the longer-term forecasts toward the end of the coming week. The ECMWF operational model has trended westward with the large 500 mb trough forecast by 00 UTC on October 28th (above). The shift west and southward was quite abrupt between the 12 UTC runs yesterday morning and the 00 UTC run last evening (above).

However, the GFS ( same forecast below, also from 00 UTC) has continued to be very progressive with the trough. It is interesting that at this time frame the ECMWF 500 mb heights over the Four Corners are 300 m lower than those in the GFS forecast (300 m is a really significant difference). So again we'll have to watch how both models trend as the week evolves.

The 00 UTC GEFS spaghetti plot for 500 mb (above) indicates considerable uncertainty for western U.S. and eastern North Pacific.

Super typhoon Lan (IR image below, from about an hour ago) seems headed toward Tokyo, and may be a wild card player in the longer range forecasts.

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