Edited to add: The latest ECMWF 500 mb 168-hour fcst from 12 UTC below.
Another ECMWF flip-flop, as per Dale's comment below!
Another look at the global model operational, 500 mb forecasts at 168- hours (VT 00 UTC 5 December). I've put the GFS at top (it was better in the last two comparisons I did). The ECMWF is below. The ECMWF forecasts rebuild the 500 mb ridge along the west coast with a vengeance. The GFS ensemble forecasts have three members that are similar to the ECMWF; however, three other members have a strong, closed low around the Arizona/Mexico border. Predictability again appears low after 5 days or so.
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