Thursday, November 09, 2017

Looking Out To Ten Days

Purple sunrise today over the Rincons, with some nice ice crystal streamers. Snowy weather today confined mostly to far northern parts of CONUS. Webcam photo below from Michigan Tech in Houghton (Upper Michigan).

In desperation, I examined the long range forecasts out to ten days (that's of course very far out and we'll hope that models are way off by then), which is November 19th. The ECMWF operational spins up a tremendous blizzard for the Great Lakes region on day ten. In contrast, the GEFS ensembles have a huge spread for the Great Lakes at day ten. Big blizzard in member to the right above but fairly tranquil in member at left.

I also looked at total precipitation forecast for the next ten days by the GFS operational - dismal rsults below. So it mostly goes since mid-August.

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