Sunday, November 05, 2017

Dry Continues But Some Chance Showers Tuesday

Photo from a bit before sunrise, looking east across Shooters Steakhouse - one of the strangest restaurant buildings in funky Tucson. Many years ago this was a Middle Eastern restaurant, thus the architecture.

The GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above from 06 UTC runs) with about half the members indicating a chance of measurable rainfall there. Note that the operational GFS (blue) is very dry wrt many of the members. The chance for showers occurs as a weak 500 mb short-wave drags by in the west-southwest flow from the Pacific.

The 00 UTC WRF-GFS (on the 5.4 km grid - below) forecasts only a very slight chance for light showers through 5:00 pm MST next Sunday (note - that the MST time zone is whole again now that DST has ended!). However, this forecast is being driven by the dry, operational GFS - so something to watch next couple of days.

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