Friday, January 05, 2018

First Rain Of 2018 Out On Horizon?

The powerful storm that hit the East Coast the last two days is mostly history now, but freezing and well below temperatures have covered the Southeast this morning - from Louisiana eastward to northern Florida. The view above is of Boston - the wind report doesn't seem to fit the smoke plume on right, but a map check indicates this view is from the west, so the plume is probably sheared away from the cam.

The global models are predicting that a 500 mb short wave will break underneath the western North America ridge at mid-week, around January 10/11. This system would come off the Pacific and perhaps bring a bit more moisture with it, than have the systems coming in from the northwest the past couple of months. Something to watch and to help keep up hope for a meaningful rain here in Tucson.

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC last night (above) are all forecasting measurable rain at TUS  mid-week. At this long range amounts are all light, except for one wild outlier. The 500 mb panels (below from 00 UTC) show 4 members of the ensemble and illustrate that there is substantial variance in the forecasts of this fast-moving wave.

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