Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Mild Morning Plus Look Ahead

Sunrise this morning at Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with a row of cirrus streamers (from Jack Hales webcam wall).

Much milder morning today, with the east winds keeping 7:00 am MST temperatures (above from MesoWest) in 40s to middle 50s F. Very mild here along the Rillito compared to yesterday's cold.

The WRF-GFS forecasts for the Sonoita soundings have apparently verified, with max gusts at the Mt. Hopkins RAWS reaching to 58 mph early this morning (below).

The GEFS plumes for QPF at TUS are flat-lined out through the end of the month. However, the temperature plumes for airport show nice warming trend (above from 06 UTC forecast runs). The brief blip over the weekend occurs as a system moves across the Great Basin to our north.

The GEFS spaghetti plots from 00 UTC last evening (above) look more like lasagna-noodle plots across North America, with high-index zonal flow out at 00 UTC on the 31st of January. Little spread over the U.S. even at seven days. 

The 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of precipitation though same period (below) is very grim and leaves the Southwest high and dry.

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