Sunday, March 11, 2018

Our Latest Event - Heavy Clouds and Sprinkles

Folks at the Book Festival were mostly under the tents late in day yesterday, as sprinkles moved in after 3:00 pm MST.

All the various models I looked at yesterday were off considerably - especially with their trend overnight for a wetter event. Sadly, the GEFS back on March 8th was much better, with a consensus  QPF for airport of a Trace to around .02". None of the ASOS sites in southeast Arizona had recorded more than a Trace when I took a look at 6:00 am this morning.

ALERT measurements at that time (above) had only Mt. Lemmon (and Keystone Peak) stations with 0.04" or more. The MesoWest local plots an hour later (below) indicated a few spots with measurable precipitation. We had 0.01" here at the house.

Best ensemble forecasts yesterday morning for this "event" were the dry outliers in the plot from the SREF forecasts shown in previous post.

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