Sunday, March 18, 2018

Sunday March 18th - Updated Monday AM

Updated Monday morning, 19 March - Yesterday's weather "event" played out as expected, with mostly light sprinkle showers and Traces of rain around the area. Plots above and below show 24-hour precipitation ending at 7:00 am MST this morning (top from ALERT and below from MesoWest). Just a couple of gauges with measurable precipitation, mostly in and near the Catalinas. The GEFS forecasts are now trending toward dry for this week - so it goes.

Cold front is approaching this morning with attendant band of cloudiness. The IR satellite image above (from 6:00 am MST) shows this cloud band across southern Arizona. The MIMIC PW analysis below (also from 6:00 am) indicates a slight increase in PW associated with the band, but with amounts that are very low - around a half an inch or less.

As the front crosses the metro area this morning the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (below - precipitation through midnight tonight) indicates sprinkles across the metro area. The blues range from a Trace to around a quarter of an inch. Main impact of this system will be briefly cooler temperatures, and then we'll await next system toward end of new week.

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