Saturday, March 07, 2020

Chances For Measurable Rain Tomorrow Decreasing


Sunrise views: from campus above and from Cabo San Lucas at bottom.


The anticipated short wave for this weekend is now forecast to to minor-out rapidly, crossing Arizona tomorrow as a minor blip - 500 mb forecast above from the NWS GFS forecasts at 06 UTC last night.

The GEFS plumes for the airport from same model runs are below - these forecasts say maybe a sprinkle or two at most tomorrow with the better chances for precipitation toward end of coming week. Contrast these plumes with those shown in previous post - dramatic changes in chances for measurable rain at airport at very short time ranges! Not good, since we expect models to be more consistent at shorter time ranges.



The 06 YTC WRF-GFS forecasts for noon tomorrow also indicate a very moisture-starved system with the precipitation almost totally avoiding Arizona.

Will need to water our very dry yard/plants/shrubs/trees later today.



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