View at sunrise this morning with just a bit of scattered clouds. At bottom is view to southwest from Ensenada, Mexico (on Pacific Coast of northern Baja).
The 500 mb analysis at 12 UTC this morning (above) is much like the model predictions. Satellite image below (IR from 1205 UTC) shows a potent looking cloud pattern with the feature above - this will be our weather-majer later today.
Forecast of total precipitation (above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) indicates 0.30" at airport, versus average from GEFS of 0.50". NWS forecast for airport today is at 100 percent POPS.
These two forecasts are also from 06 UTC WRF-GFS. Composite radar echo forecast (above for 3:00 pm MST this afternoon) indicates strong to severe thunderstorms moving across Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. Note that SPC outlook indicates isolated severe thunderstorms possible in our area.
SkewT forecast below indicates the severe storm potential - especially when one considers the vertical wind profile that has very strong southwesterly winds nearly to surface.
Should be an interesting day.
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