Nice morning colors looking toward the Rincons at around 6:10 am MST this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes for the 24 hours ending at 0803 UTC this morning (above) shows almost no thunderstorm activity, except over far northeast New Mexico.
This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows anticyclone center very distinct over central Mexico, with ridge extending north across far eastern Arizona.
I have taken a look at the question: When did the monson end? After examing upper-air analyises and TWC/TUS soundings, it appears to me that September 3rd marked the end of our summer monsoon period.
Our morning TWC/TUS sounding (above, also from SPC) is quite strange below 500 mb, with big swings in dewpoint (PW is very low at 0.73 inches). Ignore the analyzed lifted parcel showing CAPE. I don't find any CAPE when I mix the sounding up through 700 mb. Winds aloft, however, have become quite strong - note the 90 kts at 200 mb.
The forecast below (from 06 UTC GFS) shows precipitation through 06 UTC on October 1st - little to look forward to rest of month, according to model forecasts.
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