View of Catalinas at 5:40 am MST, with some sunrise color at eastern edge.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 0733 UTC indicates an active cluster of storms to the northeast of here. Storms mostly affected the Catalinas and also portions of mid-town, as per ALERT plots (below for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am).
We had frequent thunder here, but only a brief, light shower just before 4:30 pm that produced only 0.01". DM reported a Trace; NWS and Atmo had no rain. Winds were strong with gusts to 45 mph at DM; gusts to 36 mph at the airport; and I estimated 30 to 35 mph here.
The GEFS plumes for QPF (above from 06 UTC runs) continue to indicate an active week with frequent, but light showers. The GFS goes wild this evening, indicating almost an inch of rain in a heavy shower. GEFS POPS for the airport (below) hit almost 90 percent this evening.
Will eagerly watch how things develop today.
The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecasts an inch of rain at the airport through 1:00 am tonight (above) and the NWS issued a Flash Flood Watch (below) valid this afternoon and evening. Current morning forecast from NWS Forecast Office for the airport is at the bottom.
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