Today is another difficult day, with very moist air close but not quite getting into southern Arizona. There is a shallow GoC surge signal at Guaymas this morning, but with very dry air just above through a fairly deep layer. El Paso is very moist and cool and has been strongly affected by the Alex remnants; however, southeastern Arizona continues in between the Alex remnants and the significant western US 500 mb trough. This morning's TWC sounding (top image) is quite similar to yesterday's. Bit of CAPE right around 500 mb but warm air just above. Mountains will have fair amount of CAPE and most action will again be over higher elevations. It appears the steering winds for deep convection will actually be from the west today. The morning NAM forecast for 24-hour precipitation valid at 12 UTC tomorrow morning is shown in the lower image. It shows a little bullseye around Douglas but mostly light mountain rainfall. After 24 hours the 500 mb trough pushes everything east for rest of weekend - at least according to the models.
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