We have just returned from 5 miles NW of Sonoita, after driving down there late yesterday afternoon. So, I have several things to catch up on.
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I goofed up on Pat Holbrook's message about his GoC surge forecast message - he anticipated a surge by tomorrow morning (the 11th not the 10th) - sorry that I reported this wrong. Given the large MCS approaching the middle GoC this evening (bottom image), and after the one last evening further south, I'd say it's a gimme!
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My forecast of deeper, colder storms over the mountains yesterday afternoon busted badly - looks like I forgot to account for the advection and mixing impacts of the strong mountain-top estaerly winds that continued through the day yesterday - always something jumping up to bite you.
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Driving down to Sonoita on 83 last evening there were several light to moderate rainshowers - saw no lightning.
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Early afternoon down there today observed my first thunderstorm of the 2010 summer season - couple of long rumbles (didn't see any CGs) from a storm on the northeast flanks of Mt. Wrightson. Light showers down there most of afternoon and much of return drive - but little in way of accumulations. Gauge here was dry but had some dead insects in it as well as bird droppings; so I cleaned it out in hopes for tomorrow.
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Top photo is a nice sunset last evening (Friday Jul 9 2010) looking northwest at the north end of the Santa Ritas. Middle photo is rainshower (no lightning observed) south of the santa Ritas.
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Noted a new fire burning in the eastern Catalinas on return - assume it was started by a CG?
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