Quick Look At Today

I have some appointments this morning and have time for only a quick overview of the situation today. The morning sounding at TWC (top) is a bit too wet wrt GPS, but remains very tropicalish. CAPE is much down today, after yesteday's widespread storms. The cool layer near the surface indicates that a new boundary layer will likely grow from the surface during the day and that it will not be very deep, although it will have some CAPE. This type of situation requires strong outflow forcing to kick the BL if storms are to occur at low elevations. The steering flow is a bit stronger today, but is forecast to weaken some during late afternoon and evening - will be useful to monitor the wind profilers at Marana and Ft. Huachuca today, and also to watch for development of storm lines to the east.

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The NAM 500 mb forecast for midnight shows the weak inverted trough (IVT) trying to cutoff again and also to remain to our east. In the upper-troposphere the leading IVT weakens over the lower Colorado River Basin, while the trailing IVT strengthens and moves into central Mexico and west Texas. It remains a very chopped-up, messy synoptic setting, with all of the above occurring essentially within a huge, subtropical anticyclone.

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Storms today should tend to be mountain storms, since chances for a strong squall from the east don't appear to be great, as the lower elevations cook and regroup for tomorrow or next day.