Not much unsettled weather across the country this morning. However, no Easter egg hunts in Caribou, Maine, where heavy snow was falling around 10 am EDT (above). Down south, in Augusta, Georgia, high-end goofers are chasing the Green Jacket today (below). It appears that the foliage has peaked early in Augusta this year. Bushes across center of photo are azaleas - usually in brilliant, full-bloom during the Masters - but not this year. Not much color on the dogwoods either. So, mostly a green day in Augusta.
Here in the Tucson area there's no threat of snow this Easter. With 500 mb heights forecast to peak over 5820 m tomorrow, forecasts are for 90F or a bit higher. However, by Wednesday the central US block (see previous post) has weakened some and shifted eastward and northward. The ECMWF forecast for 500 mb at 168-hours (below - valid at 5 pm MST next Saturday) indicates a closed low over the Southwest with heights over Tucson area having fallen by around 250 m. All of the GFS ensemble members forecast a chance for precipitation by next weekend, during the 36-hours centered on 5 am Saturday morning. During the first three months of 2012 there has been one storm system that brought precipitation each month - these all occurred about mid-month. So, it appears that April could be a repeat - we'll keep an eye on the longer-range forecasts the next couple of days.
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