The important weather news this morning relates to yet another deadly tornado outbreak, mostly in Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. However, while I was examining soundings this morning, I went back to check on the Atmo WRF-GFS forecast from midnight Thursday night. The forecast sounding for TUS is shown above (note that this is a 36-hour forecast). The verifying Tucson sounding is shown below. The forecast was very accurate, particularly wrt the depth of the layer that would support precipitation growth. The observed sounding was released around 4 am Saturday morning, before the front passed through the metro area. Thus, the forecast sounding (which had the front just through the metro area) was off a bit near the surface. But clearly another very useful forecast by the WRF-GFS. Thanks to Mike Leuthold for all his efforts in refining this local version of the WRF!
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