Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Whoops - More Activity Yesterday Than Expected

I should have paid more attention yesterday to the early morning, elevated thunderstorms around San Diego (above - looks like hawk on line wasn't watching either). These were feed by moisture from the south coming in above 850 mb. This led to a very active October day from our west to the north (below shows detected CG flashes through 12 UTC this morning), and a narrow band of storms across eastern Pima and Pinal Counties.

After several days of excellent forecasts, the WRF runs did not forecast the storms that occurred locally. CAPE had developed by the time of the 00 UTC TWC sounding and there were thunderstorms in the area by 4:00 pm MST above. View from campus to north at 5:00 pm below was very dark.

The ALERT rainfall data below shows a swath of measurable precipitation from out around Three Points, across parts of the metro area, and into the Catalinas. Heaviest amounts, greater than half an inch, were measured out west of the interstates. The airport and DM AFB had thunder with Traces of rain. Here at house we had thunder, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, and 0.04". It was an interesting day here, but much more so far out to the northwest.

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