Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Matthew Heads North And Look Toward Our Weekend

Apparently some missile testing off to our east between Ft. Wingate and White Sands in New Mexico, as pre-sunrise photo above shows a very high rocket contrail.

The long-range forecast models have had a significant change in their forecasts for Hurricane Matthew, beginning with the ECMWF yesterday afternoon and now the GEFS forecasts are similar. The storm is forecast (current NHC track forecast below) to move up the Florida and Georgia coasts now, but then to veer eastward and perhaps do a large loop that would bring it back toward Florida by early next week. Perhaps a case of double jeopardy.

Out here in the Southwest, a weak, closed low at 500 mb establishes itself over the northern GoC by the weekend - forecast above from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS on 5.4 km grid is for 500 mb winds and temperatures at 5:00 am MST on the 8th. Below is from the same run and is for total precipitation through 5:00 pm on Monday the 10th. Model currently forecasts main impacts to occur in northern Mexico and New Mexico, where the fetch from low latitudes is quite substantial.

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