Wednesday, August 02, 2017

East Winds Today - Impact?

Showers and some storms this morning from northeast to east of Tucson - composite radar above from 7:15 am MST. Outflow from these appear to have increased the winds from the east, and that means the big question for today will be what impact the downslope will winds have on moisture and CAPE.

Storms stayed mostly on mountains yesterday, as per ALERT data for 24-hours through 7:00 am today -below - and storms viewed from campus at 4:25 pm yesterday - second below.

The morning sounding plot (above) indicates very moist conditions continuing, and with apparent increase in CAPE today. No winds below 300 mb and some hostile southerly flow upper-levels. Except for our near-surface increase in east winds. The 500 mb analysis from SPC for 12 UTC this morning indicates the anticyclone is more distinct and centered over the Great Basin. The cool air continues to be impressive with this feature, and 24-hour temperature changes ranged from -1 to -2 C from Utah southeastward to southern New Mexico.

Quick look at WRF forecasts from 06 UTC indicates that both versions picked up the east winds this morning. Both versions also forecast significant storms for eastern Pima County, as outflow winds, from either the west or or southwest, create a nice convergence zone over the metro area. What will the 12 UTC forecasts do?

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