TS Lidia will be the main focus of attention here in Southwest over Labor Day weekend, while much of eastern U.S. will be watching Hurricane Irma as it crosses the Atlantic. Current NHC forecast for Lidia from NHC (above) takes it up the spine of Baja before weakening and turning westward about 30 degrees north. Irma is forecast to become a major hurricane and head toward the Caribbean.
An IR image (below) from 7:00 am MST shows that Lidia has a very large cloud shield as it approaches Cabo San Lucas.
There continues to be considerable uncertainty regarding the northward path of Lidia, and recent forecasts have trended eastward and northward. This uncertainty is illustrated well by the 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport. The amounts forecast by the various members range from zero to a wet outlier at 1.6 inches. The main thing of interest is that the operational GFS produces one of the driest forecasts.
The 06 UTC WRF-GFS (driven by the operational model) forecast for rainfall (below - on the 5.4 km grid) keeps southeast Arizona mostly dry, with main impacts of storm staying west of the Colorado River. Will be interesting to watch how all this plays out in the real atmosphere.
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