Nice view of Baboquivari in the sun at 7:07 am this morning - above - with dark cloud band and patches of light showers visible also.
The map of detected CG flashes above (from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 1:00 am early this morning. Thunderstorm activity stayed over higher terrain well to east and south east of Tucson area - distressingly little activity over Sonora to our south. There has been no rain detected across the ALERT network for past 5 days or so.
Morning sounding from TWC (above) is quite dismal, with just a small layer with CAPE. The PW is up above 1.33" now, but there is little hope of mixing out the surface-based moist layer without a considerable increase in Td from 850 to 600 mb (note winds are southerly below 700 mb so we may see some increases. The wind profile is, however, quite nice with distinct steering flow form mountains toward the west. I suspect that thunderstorm activity will move much closer today but still tend to remain over the mountains - perhaps some light sprinkle-showers moving out over lower elevations. A strong outflow form the east would also be helpful.
The WRF-GFS from 06 UTC seems a bit more optimistic for lower elevations of the metro area - so a wait and watch kind of day, which has been pretty much the story for August.
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