Tuesday, August 01, 2017

July Closes Out As Rainiest Ever

Edited to add: Sister Pam at Santa Rita Abbey emailed the July rainfall data (which she keeps) just a bit ago - note Abbey is approximately 5 miles north-northwest of the highway junction in Sonoita. Their records begin in 1989 and prior to this month the wettest July was 2007 with 7.11 inches. The rainfall there this month totaled 11.96 inches, making this month an amazing record-breaker out there.

August comes in with a partial rainbow at sunrise - above. Yesterday was mostly a down day with anvils overhead afternoon and evening and several outflows. The plot below of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) is for period ending at 7:00 am MST and shows little in eastern Pima County.

July ended as wettest in NWS reords - nice July summary is at:  http://www.weather.gov/twc/

Two plots here are for ALERT-measured rainfall for July. - above for metro area and below for Catalinas. Whitetail in the Catalinas had almost 15 inches! Here at house we were at 5.85" - second wettest July here, after 1999 which produced 6.63".

Morning sounding plot above from SPC, as is 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC below. The sounding, although continuing with high PW, has little CAPE and stronger winds 700 to 500 mb probably reflect MCV to our south. The 500 mb chart shows the anticyclone shifted far north - best anticyclonic circulation over southeast Idaho. Considerably cooler air at this level is coming south and southwestward around the east side of the anticyclone - so CAPE may be on the increase as this cool advection moves over Arizona.

The two WRF forecasts here are for rainfall through midnight tonight - above is GFS version and below is NAM version. Little forecast for eastern Pima County but significant differences for Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. Yet another tough day.


  1. Hi Bob! Can you check your contacts at Atmo and see if July broke any records there? My rough guess adding up the monthly precipitation plots by eyeball I would think they would be close to 7""!!

  2. Hi Stefan - Mike does not know - see my most recent post. Bob