Sunday, September 10, 2017

Irma, Jose, and here

Irma and Jose are both Cat. 4 hurricanes this morning (image above from 1315 UTC). Irma has just passed through the Florida Keys headed northward. This morning's NHC forecast for Jose (below) is quite interesting, with a loop and then heading west again.

Finger Rock at sunrise this morning with both cumulus and lenticular clouds. Continued very dry at low elevations - CG flash density plot below (from and Vaisala) indicates little thunderstorm activity during past 24-hours from southern Sonora northward across Tucson, Phoenix, Grand Canyon and Utah. Storms our part of state were mostly over Sky Islands and higher elevations. Here at house we had a Trace on Friday and nada yesterday.

The 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC this morning (from SPC) shows that we're in a strange, weak flow zone between the Pacific cyclone and the anticyclone over Texas. With time the model forecasts indicate the cyclone to move northward, while an anticyclone consolidates over Sonora, not a good situation. Forecast below (from 00 UTC WRF-GFS 5.4 km forecast at Atmo) is for total precipitation through 12 UTC next Saturday morning. We'll to shift our hopes southward, where more tropical cyclone activity may head northward toward us.

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