Friday, September 01, 2017

Lidia Heading North Along Baja Coast

TS Lidia is somewhere over southern Baja this morning - IR image above from 6:30 am MST. The early morning forecast from NHC - below - indicates that Lidia is along the west coast of Baja and she will stay on the west side as she moves north-northwestward. High values of PW extend far to the north-northeast of the storm's center.

There are two soundings from Mexico that are near the storm at 12 UTC this morning. La Paz, above from SPC, shows strong southerly winds and 2.58" of PW. Emplame - below from Univ. of Wyoming - shows strong east-southeast winds and high moisture up to a bit above 400 mb. The PW at Empalme is 2.41", versus 2.05" yesterday morning.

The forecast models continue to keep the northward push of high PW in southwest Arizona and southern California. Shown here are PW forecasts from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS model valid at 6:00 pm MST tomorrow. Above is on the 5.4 km grid - a battle indicated between dry, subsiding air from around the 500 mb anticyclone and Lidia's very wet circulation. Below is forecast on the 1.8 km grid - there appears to be a forecast convergence zone over Pima County between the dry east winds and the eastward push of higher moisture. Thunderstorms are likely along and west of this zone - continues to be a watch and see situation. Brings to mind the local situation with Nora a number of years ago

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