Thursday, September 14, 2017

Mixed Signals Today

Have an appointment this morning and have only taken quick look at current situation. Photos top and bottom are from yesterday afternoon and evening, when some lonely Cbs developed.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 5:00 am MST (above from Atmo and Vaisala) indicates isolated activity around here yesterday afternoon, and considerable early morning thunderstorm activity over Rim Country, White Mountains, and northwest Arizona.

Morning sounding analysis at TWC from SPC indicates a bit of CAPE this morning , as well as deep southwesterly wind profile with PW of 1.25 inches. WRF-GFS forecast from 06 UTC of TWC sounding (below) is at 2:00 this afternoon, indicating some chance of storms in the area. The surface plot second below is for 7:00 am - Pacific front/dryline has moved into western Arizona. Timing may be an issue with the various models forecasting storms to stay north and east of Tucson this afternoon.

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