Sunday, September 03, 2017

So Much For Lidia - Quick Look At Irma Forecasts

Lidia leaves behind some sunrise ice crystal streams - above is looking west along Prince Ave. down at bottom is view looking north from Kitt Peak about half an hour later.

The models were very good at keeping impacts from Lydia west and south of here. Above shows 24-hour detected CG flashes ending at midnight last night (from Atmo and Vaisala). Below is Yuma radar at about 6:00 am MST this morning.

Second below is 6 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of PW valid at 5:00 pm this afternoon - here comes the dry air from the east again.

Will try to get my summer summary posted later today or tomorrow.


The global models are very much in agreement this morning (forecasts from 00 UTC last evening) for the forecast track of Cat. 3 Hurricane Irma. Models say the storm will be bearing down on Florida by late afternoon next Saturday. The models were wildly divergent in yesterday's morning forecasts, and I was surprised to see how they clustered toward same path this morning. Still a week away and we'll see how consistent the forecasts remain during next few days. Current NHC forecast at bottom.

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