Monday, September 18, 2017

Tropics Remain Very Active

Edited to add:


From the MAP List - the 12 UTC ECMWF operational forecast of 1000-500 mb thickness, valid at 180-hours. Storm to northwest is Jose, with Maria to his southeast. Same forecast from GFS (both are from operational versions of the models) below is very different.

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Very pleasant this morning for walking, with clear, cool, and dry conditions. At 7:00 am MST it was 70 F on campus, 69 F at airport, and 58 F here along the Rillito.



Most weather attention during the coming week will be on the five named tropical storms - especially Jose and Maria. The current NHC status maps for this morning are shown here for both Basins - along with MIMIC TPW at 13 UTC. Here in the Southwest, as Norma pulls slowly away from the GoC, it appears that some low-level moisture will intrude into southern Arizona - so that will be something to watch locally. 

In the Atlantic the long-term future of hurricanes Jose and Maria becomes very complex in model forecasts, with the storms interacting with each other near the East Coast. There may be a Fujiwhara effect, as the storms could circulate around each other, since Jose is forecast to stall and loop to the south - the second time in the long-lived storm's history.



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