Monday, December 11, 2017

Dreary But With Mild Temperatures

Webcam views looking north around 8:00 am MST this morning show the heavy middle and high cloud cover that brought intermittent periods of gloom yesterday and this morning (top the Catalinas and below from Kitt Peak).

Another night with difficult temperatures across the metro - some spots stayed windy during the night and others had periods of calm. Lows at airport yesterday and today were much warmer than the grid point forecast - and that was just for one spot. Lows here at house for Friday through this morning have been: 27, 25, 59, and 46 F. It was quite mild at 6:00 am today when I rolled the trash bins out, but winds went calm and a clear area passed  overhead  and temperature was 10 F colder at 7:00 am. The 34 F difference in lows here between Saturday and Sunday was really huge. Atmo's WRF-GFS handled the winds and temperatures pretty well across the weekend. 

The clouds continue to roll by because of the weak, closed low (above) to our southwest, but lower-level moisture is sadly low. The graphic below shows the GEFS plumes of forecast PW for TUS. Forecasts are clustered fairly tightly through Thursday morning, but then become wildly chaotic.

Long-range global forecasts shift the West Coast ridge westward, and allow a more disturbed flow pattern for next week - but of course that's a long way away.

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