Monday, December 04, 2017

Some Chance Of Sprinkles This Week

Some pre-sunrise color this morning from along the Rillito - cool morning with low of 44 F here at house, but noticeably colder down along the wash.

Models forecast some chance of light showers Tuesday into Wednesday. The QPF plumes for the airport are shown above (from the 06 UTC GEFS). Below is the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of total precipitation through noon on Wednesday. The WRF keeps the meaningful rain amounts far south and southeast of Tucson, and the new 12 UTC NAM is very similar.

Biggest weather hazard in the Southwest today is in southern California, where increasing Santa Ana winds and low RH will create serious fire weather conditions (above outlook from SPC for today and tomorrow).

In the longer-term, the 500 mb ridge from hell continues. The 168-hour spaghetti chart from the 00 UTC GEFS (below valid at 00 UTC on the 11th) shows the extreme excursions from normal heights curving north along west coast of Pacific, across the pole and then southeastward over the eastern Atlantic. This is a really ugly pattern for all of the West, except the northwestern portions.

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