Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Quick Update Before The Holiday

Forecast models continue as per last few days with moisture and thunderstorms returning before weekend. The forecast above is from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo - shown is total precipitation through 05:00 am MST on July 10th. This long-range forecast shows a typical hodge-podge of light rains at lower elevations and higher amounts up in Rim Country and along the Borderlands southwest of Tucson.

The operational GFS (blue line in GEFS plumes for QPF - below from 00 UTC last evening) continues to be a very wet outlier - so caution advised re operational versus the ensemble system.

I also note that the model forecasted skew-T for Sonoita is indicating an excellent profile for a high wind event from the east at the Mt. Hopkins RAWS site, where there's been nothing very exciting wrt to winds for a long time now. The forecast at bottom is valid at 01:00 am on the 6th of July. Will take a closer look at this tomorrow.


  1. FYI...the GEFS plumes have not updated since 00 UTC on 02 July.

  2. I need to make sure I look at the GEFS plume when using the WRFGFS for longer range forecasts. What is the link? (as I'm to lazy to go find it myself)

  3. Google is my friend. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html