Wednesday, July 04, 2018

Ramping Up The PW

Moisture and a bit of CAPE just above 500 mb this morning led to shallow Cu that iced out and produced virga.

Thunderstorms yesterday occurred well west of the Continental Divide in northern Sonora (CG flash density for past 24 hours ending 14 UTC above, from and Vaisala).  Visible satellite image (below from 14 UTC) shows residual cloudiness over northern Mexico, as well as heavy cloudiness over southern New Mexico that extends westward over parts of southeastern Arizona. The MIMIC TPW analysis from 13 UTC (second below) indicates that the models forecast of PW increases is underway. The blob of high PW in northern Sonora has been enhanced, apparently, by moisture recycling associated with the storms that occurred there last evening.

The 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo continues to forecast a significant push of higher PW into southern Arizona on strong easterly winds beginning tomorrow - above is valid at noon on the 5th and very WET forecast below is valid at 9:00 am MST on 10 July.

Model also continues to forecast a high wind event for the Mt. Hopkins RAWS and the observatory complex beginning tomorrow evening.

As the 500 mb anticyclone shifts westward through the rest of week several inverted troughs move westward across northern Mexico and the Borderlands continuing the inflow of higher PW and triggering abundant thunderstorm activity. Models indicate considerable thunderstorm activity over Sonora that results in MCSs moving over the northern GoC. This convection helps push a substantial moisture surge from the GoC up the Colorado River Basin that reaches into southern Nevada and Utah by early next week.

A very interesting week ahead as atmospheric fireworks follow on heels of today's Fourth of July celebrations.

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