Sunday, November 04, 2018

Quick Look Ahead For Coming Week

Above is the 00Z WRF-GFS forecast (on the 5.4 km grid) for precipitation through 5:00 pm MST next Sunday, November 11th - the Southwest remains very dry. BTW - finally, adios Daylight Savings Time for 2018.

Tropical Storm Xavier has wandering around off southwest Mexico for a couple of days - status this morning above and below. Xavier is forecast to remain a TS and to stay south of 20 degrees North. BTW - only two names left on the 2018 NHC list of names (Yolanda and Zeek).

 Considerable differences between GFS and ECMWF forecasts toward next weekend. The 500 mb forecasts , above and below, are valid at 00 UTC on Friday the 9th. The GFS has main trough over western Great Lakes, while ECMWF has it a bit deeper and digging some from Montana south across Great Basin. Result is that ECMWF forecasts a major blizzard over the western Great Lakes Region for next weekend, while GFS keeps any major storm off east and northeast of the Lakes. Will keep an eye on these differences during the week.

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